High-Level Corruption Prosecutions and Political Instability: A Global Analysis

In recent decades, high-profile criminal prosecutions for cases of corruption against heads of state and government have become increasingly common. While these efforts are often hailed as steps toward accountability, their broader impact on political stability remains unclear. This paper addresses the pressing question: How do these prosecutions affect political instability? The study theorizes that high-profile corruption prosecutions, particularly in developing countries, can trigger political instability by exacerbating societal divisions and eroding trust in governance structures. A primarily quantitative approach is employed, using panel regression models to analyze an original global dataset of corruption prosecutions against heads of state and government. Political instability is measured through demonstrations, polarization, and changes in the chief executive, while key control variables include economic growth, inflation, and external conflict. This allows for robust testing of the proposed relationships and for isolating the effects of prosecutions from other contributing factors. While results are forthcoming, the paper anticipates significant insights into the dynamics between corruption control efforts and political instability. The findings aim to inform debates on the timing and execution of anti-corruption strategies, proposing methods to minimize destabilizing effects on fragile political systems.