Behavioral Foundations of Populism: Why Populists Tend to Make Vladimir's Choice

Polarization and the rise of populist parties have become pressing concerns in contemporary politics. Alongside these trends is the often-overlooked increase in spiteful political behavior—actions motivated by animosity. This paper argues that the Manichean worldview inherent in populist ideology is conducive to spiteful behavior. By adopting an explicit relative gains framework, this study offers a novel perspective on populism and spiteful behavior. Unlike prevailing explanations that emphasize ingroup dynamics—such as financial stress or cultural backlash—this paper focuses on spiteful actions directed toward outgroups. It argues that the anxieties exploited by populists stem from perceptions of disproportionate and relative gains that benefit certain groups at the expense of others. Using a survey experiment with 3,000 participants in Turkey and featuring a third-party punishment game, the paper demonstrates that individuals with stronger populist tendencies are more likely to punish perceived injustices, even at personal cost. Moreover, the severity of punishment varies based on group affiliation: offenses by populists are treated leniently, while those by outgroup members elicit harsher punishment. The findings suggest that efforts to address populism must prioritize reducing perceptions of disproportionate gains between groups.