Defending Democracy: Causal Impact of State Action on Public Support for Democracy

Liberal democracies around the world face significant challenges, with rising authoritarianism and extremist ideologies posing serious threats to democratic institutions and values. While extensive research has focused on the phenomenon of far-right mainstreaming and democratic backsliding, less attention has been paid to understanding how political elites and state action can effectively counter such trends and foster renewed citizen commitment to democratic norms. This paper addresses this gap by examining the causal effect of state responses to anti-democratic actions on public opinion, focusing on a thwarted right-wing coup attempt in Germany in 2022. Using novel public opinion data and a quasi-experimental design employing the 'unexpected event during survey design' methodology, we analyse how effective counter-extremism measures can influence citizens' support for democracy and far-right voting behaviour. Our results show a significant positive shift in citizens' pro-democratic attitudes and voting preferences following decisive state action against extremism. This evidence highlights the critical role of state responsiveness and proactive measures in strengthening democratic resilience and restoring public trust in democratic institutions.