From Union to Division? Tracking the Rightward Shift in EU Legislation Amid Rising Far-Right Influence

This study investigates whether the ideological content of EU policy has moved further to the right in recent years across different policies, reflecting shifts in the composition of the European Parliament (EP) and the European Council. Since the 2014 and 2019 EP elections, far-right parties have gained significant representation and far right parties have participated in EU member state governments, potentially influencing the legislative trajectory of the EU. This study builds upon the work of Nanou, Zapryanova, and Toth (2017), which introduced an expert survey-based index measuring the Europeanisation and ideological content of EU policy-making. By revisiting and expanding this dataset to reflect more recent policy developments in the EU to enable a dynamic analysis of ideological shifts in EU legislation over time. Specifically, we compare the ideological orientation of both primary and secondary legislation since the 1990s and until 2024. This allows us to examine whether a rightward shift in EU legislation correlates with increased far-right representation and ideological polarization within EU institutions. Our analysis also captures micro-variations in the Europeanisation process, exploring how these shifts manifest across policy domains and member states. By providing novel insights into the interplay between institutional composition and legislative outcomes, this research contributes to debates on ideological diversity, representation, and the implications of rising right-wing influence within supranational governance. The findings promise to advance understanding of the evolving nature of European integration and its broader ideological implications.