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Voters, Non-Voters and Welfare State Opinions: Assessing Representational Biases in Germany, Spain, Sweden and the UK

Jennifer Buckley
University of Manchester
Jennifer Buckley
University of Manchester

Abstract

The paper examines if voters have different opinions about the welfare state from non-voters. It then considers if attitudinal differences are the result of certain sections of society being less likely to vote and the potential impact they may on welfare state politics. Welfare and public services are key political issues, which as both taxpayers and potential beneficiaries, are directly relevant to citizens. Politicians are increasingly being required to make difficult decisions about retrenching and restructuring benefits and services. In this context, the threat of electoral sanctions links the resilience of different welfare programmes to public opinion. Research into attitudes towards the welfare state has shown that they continue to be associated with salient factors such as social class and vary towards different aspects of welfare. However, across Europe there are sections of society who do not turnout at elections. Crucially, it is often the least resourced citizens who are least likely to engage with politics. These systematic differences in participation potentially are significant in the analysis of the politics of the welfare state if groups with specific needs and interests are unrepresented The analysis is based on the European Social Survey (ESS), 2008-09, for Germany, Spain, Sweden and the UK. Latent variables are used to represent the multi-dimensionality of attitudes, primarily the difference in support for social insurance as opposed to redistributive aspects of welfare. To determine the extent of attitudinal difference between voters and non-voters and its relationship to social factors, the latent classes are related to measures of electoral participation and social demographic variables.