The Disappearance of Land Use from UNFCCC Decisions: A Guided Topic Analysis

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) plays a pivotal role in shaping global environmental policies, yet a temporal analysis of UNFCCC decisions reveals variations in the emphasis on distinct topics each year. This study critically examines all UNFCCC decisions from COP1 in 1995 to COP28 in 2023, along with decisions of the Kyoto Protocol and Paris Agreement. We utilize a form of Natural Language Processing called Guided Latent Dirichlet Allocation to examine how 16 topics that were predefined by the UNFCCC are represented within decisions. Seed words were systematically derived through web scraping topic descriptions and relevant documents on websites associated with the UNFCCC. The results show how "Land Use", a topic critical for climate change mitigation, is prominently featured only certain years. Other topics, such as “Finance” and “Cooperation,” are consistently included each year but with fluctuating prominence. Through network analysis, we illustrate the cooccurrence of land use with other topics within decisions and conferences. We also examine the similarities between the words used to describe land use and other topics. We draw on Punctuated Equilibrium Theory and discuss temporal shifts that reflect broader institutional and geopolitical trends. The findings have implications for understanding how participants in global climate negotiations prioritize land use together with other topics.