Party Fragmentations and the Resilience of Nationalist Party in Türkiye

The resilience of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) in Türkiye, despite party fragmentations is a puzzle worth adressing. Despite the emergence of splinter nationalist parties such as the IYI Party and the Zafer Party, founded by former MHP members, the party has managed to maintain a stable voter base. What makes this phenomenon even more interesting is that MHP’s votes remained stable despite the splinter parties garnered significant voter support. This phenomenon raises critical questions about the dynamics of fragmentation in the political system and its impact on voter loyalty, especially on the nationalist side. Why do voters remain loyal to the nationalist MHP even when alternatives with similar ideological positions emerge? This research aims to address this puzzle by exploring the underlying factors that contribute to the MHP's sustained electoral strength. And in general, nationalist parties’ electoral strength. Interestingly, the rise of new nationalist parties did not lead to a decrease in voter support for the MHP; rather, it resulted in an increase in the overall support for nationalist parties, including splinter factions. Drawing on theoretical frameworks of party system institutionalization and fragmentation, the research employs a mixed methods approach. Quantitative election data analysis will map the MHP's vote share across regions and electoral cycles and identify patterns and anomalies before and after the rise of rival nationalist groups. This analysis will be complemented by qualitative methods, including discourse analysis of party discourse and manifestos. These methods aim to reveal how the MHP manages political fragmentation and maintains its appeal in an increasingly competitive environment. This research contributes to the broader literature on political party resilience, electoral behavior, and nationalism by highlighting the importance of political fragmentation as a contextual element. It sheds light on the mechanisms by which dominant parties such as the MHP mitigate the challenges posed by splinter groups by leveraging ideological loyalty, strategic coalition politics and grassroots networks. Moreover, by situating the MHP case within a broader theoretical debate on the stability of political parties in fragmented systems, the study provides a framework for analyzing similar phenomena in other contexts where established parties face competition from intra-party splits. In conclusion, the MHP's sustained electoral strength amid fragmentation highlights the complex relations between voter identity, party strategy and the dynamics of political competition. This resilience not only shapes the evolution of Türkiye's party system, but also offers important insights into the broader effects of political fragmentation in shaping party systems, mainstream parties, and electoral outcomes. By addressing this puzzle, the research puts an emphasis on the importance of understanding how fragmentation and competition affect the resilience of party systems and voter behavior.