Does Near Equal Dear? - Regional Affective Polarization & Feeling “Left Behind” & Federal Preferences

This paper examines Regional Affective Polarization (RAP)—the active dislike and negative sentiment between citizens from different regions—and its relationship to perceptions of territorial inequality and broader political and social attitudes within Germany’s federal structure. While affective polarization has traditionally been studied in the context of party-political divides, recent scholarship highlights its relevance in other domains of social and political conflict, including contentious policy debates (e.g., vaccinations and Brexit) and identity-based divisions related to ethnicity, nationality, and regional belonging. We extend this research by investigating how perceptions of territorial inequality shape RAP and how, in turn, RAP influences attitudes toward governance, federal decision-making, social cohesion, and collective identity. Grounded in theories of political psychology and federalism, this study draws on survey data and a conjoint experiment to capture the dynamics of RAP across different regions. The analysis examines both individual- and regional-level factors, identifying the individual determinants of interregional polarization, such as socio-economic status, political orientation, and regional identity, alongside perceptions of inequality. Additionally, the study explores how these sentiments influence preferences for the allocation of decision-making authority within the federal structure. By placing regional affective polarization at the center of our analysis, this study demonstrates that negative interregional attitudes extend beyond partisan identities to encompass territorial grievances and perceptions of inequality. These findings offer critical insights into how regional inequalities foster antagonism between groups, shaping broader political and social attitudes and reinforcing debates over decentralization, governance, and socio-political fragmentation.