Gender as a New Political Cleavage? The Influence of Masculine Feelings of Group Threat on the Voting Intentions of Young People Across the Political Spectrum in Germany

It is well established that men are more likely than women to vote for right-wing authoritarian parties, a phenomenon widely referred to as the ‘Radical Right Gender Gap’ (RRGG). Despite these clear differences, gender perspectives have seldom been a central focus in research on voting behaviour. Recent elections across Western democracies have seen not only a surge of support for conservative and right-wing authoritarian parties among young men, but also increasing support for left-wing and progressive parties among young women. Mounting evidence suggests that Masculism acts as a narrative bridge between public discourse and discourse in centre-right to far-right spaces. Masculism appeals to gender-specific concerns of men and links them to cultural and societal changes related to changing gender norms and roles, which some perceive as existential challenges to masculinity and, by extension, men in general. This dynamic leads to the emergence of an explicitly gendered cultural backlash. Political actors can tap into the resulting group-related negative emotions – conceptualized as masculine feelings of group threat – for their mobilization efforts. Right-wing authoritarian parties – such as the AfD – openly pursue such male identity politics, while left-wing progressive parties – such as the Greens – regularly engage in pro-feminist female identity politics aimed at women and sexual minorities, rarely addressing men explicitly. These gendered mobilization strategies further deepen differences in voting behaviour, by amplifying perceptions of “the gender wars” as zero sum, especially among adolescents and young adults who are in the process of building their own social identity and by extension their “affective citizenship”. This presentation will explore this emerging gendered political divide using representative data collected in 2024 from young people aged 16 to 21 in Germany as part of the MOTRA research network. The analysis focuses on how voting intentions across the political spectrum are influenced by masculine feelings of group threat. These feelings are measured using a survey scale that links masculist narratives about the perceived precarious status of 'real' men and masculinities with group-related negative emotions, consistent with Intergroup Emotions Theory (IET).