Decarbonisation or Efficiency? Policy Legacies and Varieties of Green Coalitions

This paper explores an often-overlooked dimension of climate policy: its underlying orientation—whether it prioritizes reducing energy consumption through efficiency or “greening” energy demand by transitioning from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources, such as electrification. Focusing on climate policy in the building sector, the study investigates the determinants of such orientations and underlines the role of energy policy legacies and interest group coalitions in influencing these strategic choices. As a key area of the green transition, the building sector directly affects citizens, drives domestic demand, and accounts for approximately 40% of energy consumption in the EU. Achieving climate targets in this sector can follow two main pathways, which can be combined. Decarbonization involves adopting low-carbon heating technologies such as heat pumps and biomass systems, benefiting renewable energy providers and heating system manufacturers. Alternatively, energy efficiency emphasizes retrofitting buildings to reduce consumption, which directly benefits consumers through lower energy bills and improved comfort. This paper uses a comparative analysis of national trajectories in France and Germany regarding their “heat transition” to investigate how coalitions of governmental actors, producer groups, and advocacy groups influence these strategic choices. It also explores the narratives employed by these coalitions to promote their visions of energy futures. By analyzing elite interviews, media coverage, parliamentary debates, and official speeches, the study reconstructs the belief systems and discursive strategies of key actors. The findings highlight contrasting pathways: in Germany, a coalition of renewable energy producers, heat pump manufacturers, and green politicians championed decarbonization, with passive support from real estate firms favouring heating system upgrades over comprehensive renovations. In France, a loosely aligned efficiency coalition—including climate advocates, material producers, and bio- and gas-sector actors—promoted stringent building energy performance standards, resisting electrification policies tied to nuclear power. This research provides new insights into the determinants of national climate policies and their broader implications. It also has implications on how different climate policy strategies shape the political viability of the green transition.