The EU's Geoeconomic Turn: Party Perspectives Across Member States

The global landscape is shifting towards a new cold (tech) war, pivoted by the United States (US) and China’s rivalry. Once a beacon of free trade, the US embarked on the protectionist stance of America First, a trajectory soon to be further developed as Trump resumes the Oval Office. Likewise, based on protectionism and industrial policy, China has long strived for geoeconomic power. Its current leadership in many critical technologies highlights its success, a new strategic international scenario impossible to ignore. Amidst this superpower competition, the European Union (EU) struggles to stretch a path that balances the priorities of its 27 Member States. Ursula Von der Leyen’s European Commission (EC) solution was to revive the vision of a geopolitical Europe. The EU is not naïve, declared her predecessor, who also redefined China as the EU's systemic rival. The geoeconomic turn of Von der Leyen’s EC incorporates this aspiration for a more realist approach in Europe’s international relations, particularly in response to China’s growing influence. However, forging a coherent EU front in this context remains an elusive goal. This paper explores how political parties across Member States perceive, frame and respond to the EC’s economic security strategy and related initiatives. Using mixed methods, it conducts a content analysis of the most recent electoral manifestos of governing parties at the outset of Ursula von der Leyen's second term. Theoretically grounded in Neoclassical Realism, the research examines the interplay between national governments’ systemic perceptions, political cultures, and interests within the evolving geoeconomic landscape. The findings reveal patterns of convergence and divergence in Member States’ engagement with the EU’s geoeconomic agenda, highlighting the emergence of informal groupings. Therefore, this study sheds light on evolving trends in the EU’s pursuit of strategic autonomy, providing insights into how Member States navigate the tensions between national interests and broader European objectives.