Declining the Carrot: Why EU Conditionality Didn’t Stick in Georgia

Since brokering a political agreement in 2020, the EU has applied conditionality in Georgia, freezing financial assistance to penalize non-compliance while offering the unprecedented prospect of EU membership. EU conditionality theory suggests that membership is the strongest incentive for reform. However, after gaining an accession prospect amid the Russia-Ukraine war’s geopolitical shifts, Georgia's government has undermined this opportunity by attacking Western partners and jeopardizing the process. This article explores why the EU failed to induce compliance, analyzing the effectiveness of conditionality in light of the Georgian government's increasing agency and the changing geopolitical context. It argues that the oVer of EU membership was met by autocratizing local actors who resisted EU rules and were drawn to new foreign alliances. Through content analysis of government documents and over 25 interviews with stakeholders in Georgia, the article emphasizes the importance of domestic agency and geopolitics in the success of EU conditionality