The Dissensus Among Liberal and Illiberal European Actors in EU-Belarus Relations

This article explores the influence of dissensus among liberal and illiberal European actors on EU-Belarus relations against the backdrop of two critical events: the 2020 protests in Belarus and Belarus’s assistance to Russia in its aggression toward Ukraine since 2022. It argues that Belarus’s strengthening autocratisation has affected the EU’s trajectory in overcoming dissensus among liberal and illiberal governments, which has led to the adoption of a relatively unified EU policy of non-engagement with Lukashenka’s regime and the redirection of support toward the Belarusian opposition-in-exile. This has temporarily transformed this liberal democratic opposition into a common denominator, bridging the discussions between various European actors on the grounds of basic democratic values. However, Russia’s full-scale war in Ukraine, drawing new lines of polarisation among the EU’s illiberal actors as a side effect, also led to the polarisation of their views on Belarus, Russia’s main ally. Belarusian opposition now recruited partisan allies on the grounds of support to Ukraine and more vigorously named and shamed illiberal actors arguing in favour of reengagement with Putin and Lukashenka.