Past Petty Pouting: Testing the Effect of Feeling Marginalized on Support for Political Violence Through Need for Chaos During the 2024 US Elections

This study examines the role of subjective feelings of marginalization in fostering support for political violence during the 2024 U.S. election period. Marginalization, whether actual or perceived, has emerged as a significant driver of disruptive political behavior. This influence extends beyond economically disadvantaged groups to include historically privileged individuals who perceive their social status as threatened by societal changes. Against this backdrop, we assess the extent to which and how perceived marginalization – in the form of social marginalization, relative deprivation or status loss, and political powerlessness – contribute to politically motivated violence in the context of a contentious election. Additionally, we examine the mediating role of the Need for Chaos, a psychological mindset characterized by a desire to disrupt existing societal structures. This mindset, previously linked to feelings of exclusion, status loss, and support for disruptive behaviors, may serve as a key mechanism connecting marginalization to support for political violence. In particular, we test three preregistered hypotheses. First, we propose that subjective feelings of marginalization directly increase support for political violence (H1). Second, we hypothesize that the Need for Chaos mediates this relationship, with marginalization intensifying this disruptive mindset, which in turn fosters support for political violence (H2). Finally, we predict that these effects are especially strong among electoral “losers” and individuals expressing greater dissatisfaction with the election results (H3). To test these hypotheses, we rely on original data from a two-wave longitudinal survey conducted with a representative sample of U.S. voters (n ≈ 3,000 in Wave 1; n ≈ 2,500 in Wave 2). The first wave, conducted from September 4 to November 5, 2024, captures pre-election attitudes, while the second wave, from November 6 to December 17, 2024, tracks shifts in attitudes after the election. Each wave uses a rolling cross-section design, sampling batches of 100 respondents every other day. This design allows us to analyze the interplay between perceived marginalization (measured in Wave 1), Need for Chaos, and support for political violence (both measured in Waves 1 and 2). By investigating these relationships, the study aims to shed light on the psychological, social, and political factors that can amplify the risks of politically motivated violence in the context of a contentious election.