Democratic Backsliding in Bangladesh: Can the 2024 July Uprising Reverse the Trend?

Since its independence, Bangladesh has faced challenges in establishing democracy. Subsequently, following the support of several military factions for the government, the nation experienced the establishment of a democratic regime in 1991. Between 1991 and 2005, Bangladesh experienced the zenith of its democratic governance. Numerous democratic indices thrived, enabling residents to recognise democratic rights, including fair elections, the rule of law, and political involvement. Since December 2006, the country's condition was poised for deterioration, culminating in widespread protests that resulted in the overthrow of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP)-led government, leading to the establishment of a military-backed caretaker administration. The caretaker administration, after nearly two years, relinquished power to the Awami League-led 'Grand Alliance', which achieved a significant electoral victory over the BNP-led coalition. The populace, together with funders and civil society members, expressed satisfaction, as there was a glimmer of hope for the restoration of democracy. The Awami League-led Grand Alliance exercised considerable caution throughout their initial administration from 2009 to 2014 and adhered to certain democratic ideals. However, a drop commenced with the 2014 election, during which the Grand Alliance manipulated the electoral process and the BNP abstained from participation. Consequently, over fifty percent of the parliamentary election seats were unchallenged out of a total of 300 seats. This led to the establishment of an authoritarian regime that persisted until 2024. During the 2018 election, the Grand Alliance manipulated the electoral process through 'midnight' voting, wherein half of the ballots were cast prior to the commencement of the official voting procedure. Likewise, the 2024 election occurred in the absence of any opposition, with the fight primarily including candidates from the Awami League-led Grand Alliance, referred to as 'dummy candidates.' This motivated the youth in Bangladesh, who largely had never had the opportunity to vote. The Gen-Z protest in Bangladesh commenced advocating for quota reform, namely the reduction of civil service quotas, ultimately resulting in the ousting of Sheikh Hasina from power. The July Uprising instilled optimism for the restoration of democracy in Bangladesh. This study examines whether the July Uprising has the capacity to halt or reverse the nation’s authoritarian trajectory, or if it will merely perpetuate cyclical instability in the absence of institutionalised democratic reform. The research utilises the Theory of Democratic Transition and Consolidation, focusing on rupture moments, negotiated transitions, and the structural prerequisites for democratic consolidation. Also, the ‘Contentious Politics Framework’ enhances the explanation of how collective action dynamics, opportunity structures, and repertoires of contention influenced the emergence and outcomes of the uprising. Combining these theories gives us two ways to look at things: (1) democracy as an institutional outcome that depends on elite negotiation and structural reform, and (2) uprisings as social movements that are shaped by how people organise, how the state responds, and how well they can organise. These frameworks enable the evaluation of both institutional and societal forces that may influence Bangladesh's political trajectory following the uprising.