The Gradual Hegemon: China’s Rise and Transformative Change of International Order

Traditional theories of hegemonic transitions have difficulty accounting for the mechanisms and nature of change in the contemporary international order. They are based on a punctuated equilibrium model that is geared towards capturing the replacement of one hegemonic order by another. Today, however, we are not observing the replacement of a U.S.-led international order by a China-led international order. Rather, a new China-centric international order is emerging that is still strongly embedded in the established international order through a process that we describe as hegemonic layering. While the United States established its hegemonic order rapidly during the critical juncture of the Second World War and its aftermath, China is currently building order through gradual forms of institutional change. That is, China is emerging as a gradual hegemon. By combining Hegemonic Order Theory with Historical Institutionalism, we trace the emergence of a gradual hegemon through a process of hegemonic layering and suggest how, in the long run, this may lead to fundamental change of international order. Our argument challenges both established accounts of hegemonic transitions and liberal integrationist approaches, which stress China’s incentives to work within the existing international order and tend to interpret gradual institutional changes as the adaptation of the order to China’s rise, rather than its transformation.