Socio-economic Performance, Energy Crisis, and Political Trust: Evidence from the Russia-Ukraine Conflict in Europe

Energy drives the economy, and when energy prices rise sharply, there is a spillover effect on other sectors, affecting daily life. When citizens’ lifestyles are negatively affected, trust in government often declines. After the Russian-Ukraine war began in 2022, countries in Europe experienced an energy crisis because they depended on energy imports from Russia. To reduce the social and economic consequences of this crisis, EU member states adopted various regulatory mechanisms to support vulnerable households and firms. This paper examines how socio-economic factors and regulatory instruments influenced political trust during the 2022/2023 energy crisis. Specifically, we test the hypotheses that inflation, unemployment, and perceived corruption exacerbated by the Ukraine-Russia conflict reduce political trust, while government regulatory relief measures increase it. We use a fixed effects panel analysis with Eurobarometer survey data, Eurostat socio-economic indicators, and Bruegel’s data set on regulatory measures across 27 European countries during the energy crisis. Our results show that higher unemployment and perceived corruption reduced political trust, while government relief measures taken in the wake of the Russia and Ukraine conflict increased political trust. This study improves understanding of how crisis-driven socio-economic pressures and government relief measures interact to shape political trust across European countries.