The state/fate of the European Green Deal in rapidly changing geopolitical and turbulent landscape: Weakening, delay or roll-back?

This paper examines the trajectory of the European Green Deal (EGD) in an era marked by overlapping geopolitical, economic, and political crises. Drawing on a theoretical framework that links internal and external sources of turbulence to processes of policy strengthening and dismantling, we analyse how key pillars of the EGD have evolved following the COVID-19 pandemic, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the cost-of-living and energy crises, and the rightwing shift in the 2024 European Parliament elections. We assess both the internal dimension of EU climate governance—focusing on the Fit for 55 Package and the formulation of the 2035/2040 climate targets—and the external dimension embodied in emerging supply-chain regulations, notably the Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD) and the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR). While early crises initially reinforced climate and energy ambition, more recent political turbulence has generated delays, weakened legislative provisions, and opened avenues for subtle and overt forms of dismantling. Supply-chain regulations, as newer and less institutionalized instruments, have proven especially vulnerable. We argue that these developments undermine the EU’s credibility as a global climate leader and weaken its ability to shape climate governance ahead of COP30 in Belém.