Turning a blind eye? EU democracy promotion and Tunisia’s re-autocratisation under President Kais Saied

Following his 2021 power grab, Tunisian President Kais Saied reversed much of the democratic progress achieved in the only country that saw a sustainable transition after the 2011 Arab uprisings. Despite the EU’s declared ambition and major financial efforts to support Tunisia’s nascent democracy, its reaction to the country’s re-autocratisation remained muted. EU democracy promotion tools such as targeted financial assistance, civil society support and diplomatic dialogue saw little adaptation to the new context. Given the EU’s growing emphasis on curbing irregular migration in its engagement with Tunisia – both before Saied’s coup and through subsequent cooperation agreements – one might expect this agenda to explain its limited response. However, this article argues that there was little reason to expect Saied to be an easier interlocutor for Brussels. Instead, two other factors are central to understanding the EU’s stance. First, EU democracy promotion has changed in that it became less ambitious and more geopolitical, prioritising its Eastern neighbourhood where liberal democracy serves to counter Russian influence. Second, Tunisia’s autocratisation unfolded under very specific circumstances – amid the Covid-19 pandemic and with substantial domestic support. This context made it difficult for the EU to formulate an adequate response.