Climate Coalitions in Advanced Capitalist Democracies: the Long View

This presentation takes a long view on the evolution of coalitions for and against strong climate policy in high income OECD countries. Climate change emerged as a policy problem in these countries from the 1990s, and responses to it have evolved over a period during which advanced capitalist democracies have undergone a number of important inter-related changes. On the one hand, deindustrialisation and the decline of fossil fuel production has weakened high-carbon interests in some countries. On the other hand, the hollowing out of labour markets through globalisation and technical change, the liberalisation of finance, and a decline in fiscal space have all presented challenges for climate action given the nature of the basic climate policy problem. During the 2000s, the expansion of the knowledge economy and party cartelisation allowed the creation of coalitions in many countries for accelerating climate policy, while enhanced redistribution muted adverse reactions to policy costs. However, following the financial crisis in the 2010s, this coalition faced major challenges as previously disengaged voters marginalised in the knowledge economy increasingly turned to populist right parties. Populist right parties are most concerned about immigration but also started to mobilise concerns about climate policy costs. While the Paris Agreement spurred a set of ambitious net zero goals, conditions for actually implementing policies to meet these goals within countries have deteriorated sharply. While the scientific and ethical imperatives for huge acceleration of low-carbon transitions in high-income OECD countries are very strong, many now lack viable dominant coalitions for such transitions. Beyond policies, the construction of new coalitions is required. The prospects for this are discussed.