Food Security and Economic Liberalization in North Africa: What are the Trade-Offs?

Across the globe, food security has emerged as a top priority for countries in response to the increasingly uncertain geopolitical situation and climate change. Recent crises, such as the sharp rise in cereal prices due to the war in Ukraine, have highlighted the interdependencies and vulnerabilities of the global food system. As a result, policymakers have started to rethink agricultural trade relationships, and many countries have expressed their interests in increasing their levels of food self-sufficiency. The call for greater self-sufficiency is particularly strong in North Africa, which is one of the most food import-dependent regions in the world. This paper seeks to better understand the political economy of food security in North African countries by focusing on the impact of past agricultural trade policy reforms on different segments of the population. It addresses, for instance, how the period of economic liberalization since the 1970s (e.g., infitah in Egypt) coincided with key transformations in agrarian (property) relations and resulted in the growth of (foreign) commercial interests. The analysis concentrates on producers in different areas and time periods, examining the gains and losses in export-oriented and import-competing sectors based on data from FAOSTAT (producer and consumer prices) and World Integrated Trade Solution (tariffs and trade competitiveness). While the main purpose is to trace the effects of agricultural trade policy reforms, the empirical approach also exploits the heterogeneity among North African countries by considering how other factors – such as resource availability, regime types and exchange rate movements – shape the patterns and dynamics across diverse settings. By recognizing the economic inequalities that arise from agricultural trade policies, the paper explores how changes in tariffs and subsidies can cause (or contribute to) possible conflicts over distributive outcomes. Ultimately, the findings shed light on the trade-offs that lie at the heart of the debate on the link between international trade and food security.