Perceived Political Polarisation and Social Trust in a High-Trust Context

Public debate in many Western democracies has increasingly been described in terms of societal polarisation and fragmentation. While existing research has documented rising perceptions of polarisation, the broader consequences of such perceptions remain insufficiently understood. This paper examines how perceived political polarisation affects generalised social trust in Finland, with particular attention to divisions over morality issues, drawing on both survey and experimental evidence. Perceived polarisation is defined as individuals’ subjective assessments of how politically divided society is, independent of their own ideological positions or affective evaluations of different groups, and may diverge from actual levels of polarisation. Finland is not generally considered a highly polarised country, yet paradoxically, public concern about societal fragmentation has increased in recent years. This makes Finland a particularly informative context for examining how perceived political division may affect social trust in a setting characterised by historically high levels of trust. The analysis builds on the assumption that social trust rests on perceptions of shared normative foundations and a sense of moral commonality among members of society. From this perspective, perceiving divisions over contested value issues is expected to undermine beliefs in a shared social community, thereby reducing trust in fellow citizens. Morality issues, including debates over sexuality, drug use, and end-of-life care, are theoretically well suited for studying these dynamics, as they concern fundamental questions of right and wrong and tend to evoke clear symbolic boundaries within society. Empirically, the study employs a multi-method design combining nationally representative survey data with a vignette-based survey experiment. The survey data are used to examine population-level associations between perceived polarisation and social trust, while the experimental component tests the causal mechanism by manipulating perceived polarisation through informational cues that highlight consensus (low polarisation) or dissent (high polarisation) across a set of morality issues. By integrating observational and experimental evidence, the paper clarifies how subjective perceptions of political polarisation can erode social trust even in relatively low-polarised, high-trust contexts, thereby shedding light on a key mechanism underpinning democratic stability.