Beyond In-Betweenness: Central and Eastern Europe and Strategic Adaptation in a Changing World Order

The paper contributes to the ECPR section Politics in Central and Eastern Europe: Navigating Uncertainty? by offering three main insights. First, it reframes uncertainty as a driver of subregional strategic relevance rather than solely a source of fragmentation. Second, it demonstrates that Central and Eastern Europe—through the Visegrád subregion—constitutes a meaningful unit of analysis in contemporary security politics. Third, it highlights the broader implication that, in an era of contested world order, subregional cooperation may serve as a critical adaptive strategy for small and medium-sized states seeking stability, security, and influence within Europe and beyond. The paper examines how Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) navigates strategic uncertainty in a rapidly transforming international order, focusing on the subregional dynamics of the Visegrád Group. It argues that CEE is no longer adequately understood as a passive “in-between” space shaped primarily by great-power competition, but increasingly functions as a strategically relevant subregion whose internal security interactions, threat perceptions, and policy responses display a distinct and analytically coherent pattern. The paper is embedded in a broader doctoral research project that combines international relations theory, regional security studies, and empirical analysis to reassess the role of CEE under conditions of systemic change. The central research problem addressed is how shifting global and regional structures - marked by the erosion of the liberal international order, renewed geopolitics, war in Europe, and increasing economic and security fragmentation - reshape the strategic room for manoeuvre of CEE states. While uncertainty is a global phenomenon, this paper shows that it is experienced with particular intensity in the region due to historical legacies, geopolitical exposure, economic openness, and security dependence. The analysis therefore treats uncertainty not merely as a contextual background, but as a constitutive condition influencing strategic thinking, securitization processes, and regional cooperation. The paper builds its theoretical framework primarily on Regional Security Complex Theory (RSCT), complemented by selected realist, liberal, and constructivist approaches to world-order transformation. It conceptualizes the Visegrád countries as a subregional security complex, arguing that their security concerns, strategic narratives, and policy responses are sufficiently interlinked to justify analysis below the level of Europe as a whole, yet beyond the purely national frame. This subregional perspective allows for a more nuanced understanding of how CEE states respond collectively - and sometimes divergently - to systemic shocks such as Russia’s war against Ukraine, NATO adaptation, EU strategic debates, energy security challenges, and technological and industrial competition. Methodologically, the paper combines qualitative analysis of national security strategies, joint statements, and policy documents with elite interviews conducted across all four Visegrád countries. This mixed approach enables a comparison between formal strategic commitments and underlying perceptions, revealing that while political frictions may constrain visible cooperation, the structural potential for subregional coordination remains high. The findings suggest that many of the perceived weaknesses of CEE cooperation stem from short-term political dynamics rather than from a lack of shared strategic interests or compatible security cultures.