Discursive Dynamics of Climate Change in German Agriculture: Continuity and Change in Media and Parliament

The agricultural sector is simultaneously confronted with climate risks and biodiversity loss, as well as supply chain disruptions and concerns about food security. Within this polycrisis, long-standing notions of agricultural exceptionalism are increasingly contested, creating tensions between competing ideas, interests and problem framings. The simultaneous pressure from mul-tiple directions intensifies struggles over problem definitions and creates fertile ground for new frames and policy ideas. Drawing on Punctuated Equilibrium Theory (PET), we expect that crises act as external shocks that trigger shifts in issue attention and open windows for discur-sive change. Discourses therefore constitute a crucial arena for observing moments of stability and disruption in German agricultural policy. Against this backdrop, this study examines how climate change in the agricultural context is framed in German newspaper coverage and parlia-mentary debates, thereby analyzing what these discursive patterns reveal about the dynamics of continuity and change in German agricultural policy. To analyze this interplay, we compare emotions, opinions, and discursive patterns in German media coverage and parliamentary debates using text-as-data methods. Topic modelling is ap-plied to identify central themes in media reporting over the past decade, while dictionary-based sentiment analysis captures affective tendencies and their evolution over time. To link public discourse to political decision-making, the media analysis is complemented by an examination of parliamentary speeches on climate-related agricultural policy. Whereas media coverage shapes public understanding and amplifies specific frames, parliaments operate as institutional venues where competing interpretations are translated into policy claims. Comparing these are-nas allows us to assess how sentiments and topics differ between public communication and the political arena and whether shifts in one arena precede or influence developments in the other. Because discourses define which problems are seen as urgent, which solutions appear legiti-mate, and which actors are held responsible, changes in media and parliamentary discourse can substantially influence the direction and pace of agricultural transformation. The study contrib-utes to existing research by comparing political and media discourse on climate-related agricul-tural issues, offering insights into the broader mood, drivers, and obstacles surrounding agricul-tural transformation in Germany. By combining topic modelling and sentiment analysis within a post-exceptionalist framework, it sheds light on the dynamics of stability and change in this sector during a period of heightened uncertainty. Drawing on PET and on current political developments in the agricultural sector, we expect to observe the emergence of climate-related topics and increasingly positive sentiments towards stricter climate policy around 2018, followed by a backlash from 2024 onwards in response to farmers’ protests and changes of government. Furthermore, we anticipate that developments in media discourse will precede and shape shifts in parliamentary debate.