Are Economic Inequalities Drivers of Shifts in Political Trust? Comparative Evidence from Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain, and Cyprus in the Context of Recent Crises

While in political science there is evidence that the economic performance of democracies is better than that of authoritarian regimes, transition from authoritarian rule and democratic consolidation raise expectations for individual economic prosperity that are not necessarily fulfilled over time and as a result undermine the legitimation of democratic political institutions. We hypothesize that low personal income, subjective feelings of poverty and unemployment status and particularly so being long-term unemployed negatively impact trust in political parties and parliament; that increases in income inequality also drive political trust down, not only among individuals at lower-income brackets but also other income groups; and that these negative effects are sharper in crisis periods during which democratically elected governments face challenges related to the national economy (Eurozone crisis) and public health (Covid-19). To test these hypotheses, our study covers the period 2002-2024 and focuses on five Southern European countries (Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain, and Cyprus) that underwent both types of crises. To ensure longitudinal consistency and address data gaps, we employ a triangulation of data sources, harmonizing individual-level evidence from the European Social Survey and the Standard Eurobarometer with macro-economic indicators from Eurostat.