Democratic Erosion, the Menace of War, and the Crisis of International Legitimacy

This paper analyses the growing global risk of large-scale violent conflict emerging from the convergence of three structural processes: the erosion of liberal democratic institutions, the rise of new radical right ideologies in the Global North, and the progressive delegitimization of the United Nations and other international organizations. These dynamics are examined through the lens of the European Union’s ongoing political and institutional crisis. While acknowledging the structural continuities of modern warfare (Malešević and David 2025), the paper argues that the nature of war is undergoing significant transformation. Traditional military strategies are increasingly supplemented by digital technologies, foreign information manipulation and interference (FIMI), and the strategic centrality of cyberspace. At the same time, the normalization of authoritarian political strategies and the electoral growth of radical right parties have intensified the threat of democratic subversion within EU member states and the United States. The paper highlights the renewed militarisation of political discourse and policy, visible in migration governance, changing conceptions of citizenship, increased defence spending within NATO, and the reintroduction of mandatory military service in several EU countries. These developments are legitimized through references to emerging global security threats and geopolitical rivals, while reintroducing the menace of the nuclear war. During the Cold War, international relations were structured around the doctrines of Mutual Assured Destruction, atomic diplomacy, and massive retaliation. Both Eastern and Western blocs shared a deterrence logic based on nuclear armament and technological competition. The balance of power was maintained through military escalation, particularly nuclear weapons development, while international institutions—most notably the United Nations—expanded their role as mediating bodies capable of crisis management and post-conflict justice. This paper advances the hypothesis that contemporary conflicts over fundamental territorial and technological resources for future development of the nations, and power domination, are reintroducing the risk of nuclear catastrophe. Unlike the Cold War, this renewed arms race—especially in nuclear weaponry—proceeds without explicit reference to the principle of Mutual Assured Destruction that once underpinned deterrence. This dangerous shift coincides with the deterioration of the legitimacy and operational capacity of international institutions, especially of the UN. The paper asks whether these dynamics increase the real potential for violent conflict, in which the destructive consequences are obscured by concepts such as “tactical” nuclear weapons with supposedly limited effects. It also examines how the European Union positions itself in this context and with what consequences. The analysis shows that the European Union currently lacks a coherent supranational foreign and security policy, autonomous defence capabilities, and strategic unity, remaining constrained by member-state sovereignty and uncertainty within the Atlantic Alliance. The paper concludes by framing these developments as not only geopolitical but also normative and ethical challenges for a European institutions and society confronting a deep crisis of its political, social, and cultural foundations.