How Media Exposure and Life Perceptions Shape Emigration Aspirations Under Anticipated Mobility Policy Change: Evidence from Kosovo’s Visa Liberalisation Preparation Phase

This study examines whether awareness of the freedom of travel leads to a reduction or an intensification of emigration aspirations in transitional societies characterized by high levels of emigration. It raises the question of how media exposure and perceptions of life, taken together, shape emigration aspirations in contexts where mobility policies, such as visa liberalization, are expected to come into force. To this end, the study adopts an integrated theoretical approach grounded in migration, media, and communication studies, focusing on the pre-visa liberalization phase in Kosovo. Drawing on two-wave panel data collected between July and December 2023 (N = 505), that is, shortly before the implementation of visa-free travel to the Schengen area on 1 January 2024, the analysis tests whether, within a short period of five months, exposure to news and political influencer content, as well as the perceived tone of information, shapes evaluations of life in the country of origin, Kosovo, and in destination countries, the European Union, thereby influencing emigration aspirations. The findings show that emigration aspirations intensify during periods of anticipated mobility, as media exposure systematically shapes life evaluations. Exposure to specific media influences perceptions of life in Kosovo, which remain relatively stable at the individual level, whereas perceptions of the EU change over time while remaining more idealized. Across both contexts, the perceived tone of news emerges as a key predictor of life evaluations, with more negative assessments of life at home and more positive assessments of life abroad jointly associated with higher emigration aspirations, even prior to visa liberalization. These results contribute to the understanding that, beyond structural conditions, media narratives also play an important role—an aspect that is highly relevant and should be taken into account by media practice and policymakers.