Sovereign Minerals: Building Security into a Just-In-Case Graphite Supply Chain

Electrifying the European economy to meet climate change commitments is reliant on access to renewable energy. At the same time, the military rearmament strategy of Europe requires considerable natural resources also used in the energy transition (Niinistö 2024; Tercero Espinoza and et al. 2024). Critical Raw Materials (CRMs) are emerging as part of this geopolitical race to secure supplies and create political leverage. China’s export controls over a broad range of CRMs are already shutting down assembly lines (Waldersee et al. 2025). This throttling of supplies is reminiscent of the 1970s oil crisis and Russia’s tightening gas supplies in 2021 (LaBelle 2023; Yergin 1991). Both times, the impact resulted in a diversification of sources and a new geopolitical era. Security is now altering trade relations, shifting from an age of global interdependency to selective-interdependency by aligning with partners with shared interests and “in line with our principles and values” (Niinistö 2024, 137). Supply chains are moving from just-in-time to just-in-case – there is war or a natural disaster. Or more bluntly put in the context of the United States, “We’re going from a just-in-time integrated world economy… to a just-in-case world economy” that is “just in case we have a war” (Friedland in Wilson 2025). The just-in-case supply chain may be in preparation for war, but shaping demand for energy or resources is also a task governments take in a geopolitically contested world. Geopolitics is about shaping the world order, but it is “not the war plans of the great powers but their energy consumption plans” that drive change (Dalby 2014, 8). Since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, geopolitics is about war plans and energy consumption. A realist vision holds a military perspective of geopolitics and a new great race for resources. The Trump administration’s claim over Venezuela’s oil likewise reflects a new geopolitical reality for energy security. This study will examine in detail the role of graphite, as it captures these supply chain dynamics and constraints of CRMs. The EU has identified graphite and lithium as having the most significant bottlenecks for refining (Carrara et al. 2023). However, demand for graphite in the EU is expected to soar 26 times by 2050 (Carrara et al. 2023, 189). China processes 90 percent of supplies despite deposits around the world. It is used in many products, from batteries to solar PV, microchips, and gun barrels. The supply chain runs from Southern Africa, including Madagascar, Mozambique, and Namibia, through China to Europe and the United States, with all investing billions into Southern Africa for different energy and infrastructure projects (Represas et al. 2023; Massango 2023; Sanchez 2024). The paper will draw on semi-formal interviews with mine owners in these three countries, government officials, and NGOs then apply the just-in-case framing to how these affects national sovereignty and international solidarity in the graphite trade. Is it possible to capture a CRM for just-in-case reasons, or is global interdependency too tightly interconnected?