Sub-National Economic Inequalities and Support for the Populist Radical Right Across Europe

Research on the “geography of discontent” links sub-national economic inequalities, i.e., inequalities between places within countries, to electoral change, suggesting that poorer regions fuel the rise of populist radical right parties. However, this paper identifies a paradox: despite expectations, such support has also intensified in many comparatively affluent European regions, revealing patterns of electoral heterogeneity that challenge prevailing explanations of populist mobilisation. To address this paradox, the paper contributes to the literature by moving the focus away from sub-national differences in structural economic development and placing it instead on shorter to medium-term fluctuations in living standards. It argues that rich places that have faced economic decline in their local housing market and the distribution of real wages have experienced a rise in populist radical right support. Using data from 11 waves of the European Social Survey (2002-2023), this paper provides support for this hypothesis. These findings have major implications for understanding the rise of the populist radical right across different territorial units.