Evaluating Social Vulnerability Trends and the Role of Migration in the EU During the Poly-Crisis Period (2008–2024)

This paper examines the evolution of social vulnerability and its relationship to migration dynamics in the European Union during the prolonged poly-crisis period from 2008 to 2024. Over this time, EU societies have been exposed to a sequence of overlapping shocks, including the global financial crisis, austerity policies, the migration and refugee crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russo-Ukrainian war, and the ensuing energy and inflation crises. Together, these developments have reshaped labor markets, welfare systems, and patterns of social inclusion, generating new and uneven forms of vulnerability across regions and population groups. To capture these dynamics, the study develops a composite Social Vulnerability Index based on four core dimensions: employment, living conditions, health, and education. The index integrates a set of harmonized indicators from Eurostat for all EU Member States and is analyzed using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to identify structural patterns and temporal shifts in vulnerability. This quantitative approach is complemented by a comparative examination of migration and labor-market trends, allowing the study to explore how rising vulnerability both influences and is influenced by intra-EU mobility and third-country migration.