Anticipating the Future of Liberal Democracies in Europe

Several alarming signals point to the concern that democracy’s sustainability can no longer be taken for granted — making its “longevity” a pressing empirical and normative question. In this paper we take a mixed method approach, looking at historical developments, recent facts, trends and drivers as well as scenarios on the future development of democracies from various foresight projects. We conclude with some concise points for actions addressing different levels of policy making throughout societal, economic and political institutions. Since the end of World War II Europe, especially Western Europe, has experienced several decades of peace, democracy and economic growth. The fall of the Iron Curtain has given hope to many Eastern European countries to thrive under these framework conditions and granting their citizens the means to take active part in the development of the politics of their countries. However, the fundaments of democracy as we have known it over the past 80 years seem to erode. The global average liberal democracy score has declined over the past decade — indicating erosion of civil liberties, judicial independence, and checks on power. The share of the world’s population living in autocracies or electoral autocracies has risen to around 70%, reversing decades of democratic expansion (Our World in Data, 2024). Are our European democracies resilient for the next 100 years? We make reference to several ongoing and recent EU Horizon projects that put the focus on specific democratic elements. Projects like INVOLVE and RECLAIM identify declining public trust as a key risk driver. We will further explore the role of social benefits, public transport, corruption, traditional journalism and a few other variables to stress test the resilience of liberal democracies. Some political institutions are more crucial than others. Citizens increasingly doubt that elections or parliaments can effectively solve long-term challenges. The MeDeMAP project emphasizes that digitalization and algorithmic governance challenge the quality of public deliberation and information integrity. Social fragmentation, disinformation, and populism amplify cynicism and apathy. The paper explores how rebuilding trust and participatory legitimacy might restore democratic resilience. Democracy’s future is contingent, not guaranteed. Foresight work will reflect on stresses that democracy’s persistence depends on adaptive capacity, not on any inevitable “arc of progress.” The three main “resilience pathways” to 2040 in short are: 1. Managed Adaptation — democratic systems reform and modernize to maintain legitimacy. 2. Fragmented Resilience — short-term coping amid declining trust and polarization. 3. Systemic Breakdown — democratic erosion through institutional overload or illiberal consolidation. The future of democracy depends on anticipatory governance — the ability to act before legitimacy crises become irreversible. This puts the burden on civil society as well as on public policy making. The way forward not only rests on how much trust political institutions can restore for citizens but also on how we can establish and maintain democratic governance in the institutions we deal with on a daily basis: in our schools, companies, and families.