Regime Performance and Political Support in Central-Eastern Europe

Over the past decade, the political systems of Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries have experienced significant upheavals, with a number of new political actors emerging that challenge the political and economic order established in 1990s. Some of these actors have taken the form of anti-establishment reform parties seeking to improve liberal democracy and the market economy, while others have emerged as populist movements challenging the political and economic status quo. These supply-side challenges are mirrored on the demand side in citizens’ evaluations of democratic regimes and market economies. The paper examines how citizens’ support for democratic regimes and market economies has evolved in CEE countries over time and to what extent it has been shaped by regime performance at the macro level and socioeconomic outcomes at the individual level. The paper starts from the premise that these challenges and the citizens’ attitudes reflecting them are shaped by the performance of the political and economic regimes established in the 1990s. Initially, citizens’ views of democracy and the market economy were largely formed through comparisons with the preceding communist regimes. However, over time, the influence of such regime comparisons is likely to decline and be replaced by evaluations based more directly on the performance of new regimes. Because experiences of communist rule vary considerably across generations, the impact of comparisons between former communist and current democratic regimes is expected to be weaker, if not absent, among younger cohorts, and to diminish further over time. Consequently, regime support is increasingly likely to be driven by performance evaluations of democratic political systems and market economies, as well as by their effects on citizens’ socioeconomic outcomes. While older generations may still partially rely on regime comparisons, over time their support for democracy and the market economy is likely to depend less on comparisons with the past and more on assessments of current regime effectiveness. The impact of individuals’ socioeconomic positions is further conditioned by overall economic performance and the quality of governance. Political and economic systems in countries with higher economic growth and better governance are more likely to be perceived as offering opportunities to a broader range of citizens, including those at the lower end of the socioeconomic scale. As a result, better-performing regimes are expected to exhibit higher overall levels of regime support. Moreover, more inclusive and equal social and economic outcomes are likely to reduce the extent to which differences in individual socioeconomic conditions and economic evaluations translate into variation in regime support. To achieve its analytical objectives, the paper employs multilevel analysis combining individual-level survey data from WVS and EVS covering CEE countries across multiple time points with macro-level indicators of economic performance, quality of governance, and equality of socioeconomic opportunities. The analysis focuses on three dimensions of regime support: regime norms, performance, and institutions. In addition, the paper explores how support for democratic regimes and market economies relates to populist political appeals and actors, and whether the sources of support for populist appeals overlap with the factors influencing regime support.