Between Labor Shortages and Xenophobic Public Opinion: Explaining Labor Migration Policy

Although labor migration could mitigate worsening labor shortages across Europe, this policy option is increasingly constrained by xenophobic public opinion and the electoral success of far-right parties. While existing research suggests that labor migration policies in advanced economies have converged toward liberalization in recent decades, it remains unclear how policymakers respond to competing domestic pressures for and against labor migration. Political economy accounts emphasize strong economic demand for migrant labor driven by economic growth and demographic aging, alongside growing political opposition rooted in concerns about the social consequences of migration and amplified by media coverage and right-wing populist actors. This paper conceptualizes this tension as a client interest–public opinion dilemma, capturing the trade-offs policymakers face between economic demand for migrant labor and electorally salient public opposition. I argue that higher labor demand increases the likelihood of labor migration policy liberalization, while more xenophobic public opinion is associated with more restrictive policy choices. The paper employs quantitative analysis on a panel dataset that integrates multiple cross-national surveys and the Immigration Policies in Comparison database. Ongoing analyses examine how variation in labor demand and public attitudes jointly shape policy outcomes over time. By foregrounding the client interest–public opinion dilemma, this study contributes to a more nuanced understanding of cross-national variation in labor migration policymaking and offers a framework for analyzing the interaction between the structural economic demand for migrant labor and social grievances related to migration phenomena.