In person icon Mechanisms and Outcomes of Ratcheting-Up the Ambition and Effort in Low-Carbon Energy Policies

Abstract

The ability of climate and energy policies to "ratchet-up" over time represents one of the main hopes for closing the gap between current efforts and the emissions reductions needed to meet global climate targets. Ratcheting-up refers to the progressive strengthening of policy ambition and effort through various mechanisms: raising targets, expanding policy scope, increasing stringency, layering new instruments, and enhancing enforcement. Yet, while international climate agreements increasingly rely on such strengthening processes, we lack a systematic understanding of how policy ambition and effort actually evolve at the national level, interacting with technological and geopolitical developments. Perhaps more importantly, it remains unclear whether and how these evolutions empirically affect transition outcomes. This panel examines the presence (or absence); conditions; mechanisms; and outcomes of ratcheting-up in national energy transitions to mitigate climate change. It focuses on several interconnected puzzles related both to policy ambition and effort: - How do policymakers navigate competing pressures when ratcheting-up ambition? - What drives policy effort for low-carbon technologies over time? - Under what conditions do more ambitious targets translate into accelerated technological change? Of particular interest is whether patterns of ratcheting-up of ambition and policy effort follow from technological maturation and change, or whether they respond primarily to political and institutional factors. Through national empirical analyses, the panel investigates both successful and unsuccessful attempts to strengthen climate and energy policies over time. The panel examines whether, and how, different jurisdictions have ratcheted-up policy ambition and effort by managing emerging barriers to accelerated transitions, while coordinating across governance levels and with various actors in evolving contexts. It also critically assesses the relationship between target-setting and policy strengthening, exploring whether ambitious targets drive policy innovation and successful outcomes or risk widening implementation gaps. The findings contribute to both theoretical and practical understanding of ratcheting-up, thus advancing debates around climate and energy policy evolution, feedbacks, as well as implications for meeting global climate targets.

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