Targets as Drivers of Future Progress or Reflections of Past Action?

Ratcheting up climate ambitions is necessary to meet the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees. Countries have, therefore, set themselves targets to limit emissions and, in some cases, increase their shares of low-carbon energy. However, the process behind and function of targets are complex and affected by disparate factors like each country’s economic situation, the development and outlook of the needed technologies, and national or international political aspects. Additionally, the relationship between targets and their actual implementation is under-researched. First, studies suggest that countries use such commitments to signal to the international community and internal actors that they prioritize specific issues or industries. However, empirical analyses are limited and focus on specific regions, mainly European countries. Therefore, this study addresses: Do targets drive progress, or are they reflections of past achievements? We build a unique dataset of renewable energy and climate (carbon emissions) targets for approximately 150 countries, including a balanced representation of countries and regions, to ensure robust and comprehensive results. Achievement or performance is measured as the percent share of renewable electricity from total electricity generation and the percent reduction in emissions compared to the 1990 level. We apply descriptive and cluster analysis to examine how countries set targets and whether they drive progress. We find that the role of targets has shifted over time. Initially, up to around 2020, targets were not drivers of future progress but reflections of past achievements. In most cases, the next target had already been achieved at the time of target setting, or it was at or below the linear extrapolation of past progress. Since around 2020, we observe that targets have shifted to signal future ambitions. Some targets, including the EU 2030 targets, exceed past trends significantly, although many countries still have targets following the same logic as before. This requires much faster progress than recent trends, and such targets thus follow a different rationality than before. As a result, signaling alone may have limitations as a political tool, especially when targets are too abstract and lack concrete measures for broad decarbonization.