Responding to polls – how the survival chances of different types of governments is affected by changes in popularity

Some of the most influential theoretical models in the field of cabinet stability studies suggest that changes in popular support should affect the government’s likelihood of early termination (Laver & Shepsle 1998). Changes in popularity are likely to impact future election results, and government parties concerned with being in power also after the next election have to take changes in the polls seriously. However, the ability to act decisively in response to polls should depend on what type of government is in power. This paper distinguishes majority from minority governments and single party from coalition governments to show that they have distinct responses to similar changes in popular support. Using a recent empirical dataset with more than 26 000 individual polls (Wlezien & Jennings 2015), it is shown that governments that find it easier to act (single party governments) and those that find it more difficult to introduce new policy to address their lack of popularity (minority governments) are more heavily affected. This suggests that “opinion shocks” do not have a universal effect, but instead an effect that is mediated by the type of government that is in power.