On the limits of budgets and defence planning: A comparative analysis of how European states are reforming their militaries

European militaries have been in a state of flux since the end of the Cold War, and arguably before. The key issues determining the change are environmental or structural changes vis-a-vis notions of national securities and in combination the role that militaries play in contemporary European societies. Since 2007, we have experienced a third important factor: declining budgets for nearly all with few notable exceptions (Poland). In a qualitative study of eight European countries, this paper looks at the how budgets are perceived as impacting on defence planning. It looks specifically at how budgets are seen as drivers and constraints on static and dynamic decisions in European militaries. The case studies break down into three groups. They are defence plus states likes the UK, France, and Poland, whom maintain an important role for their militaries at home and abroad. Secondly, there are the defence minimal states like Belgium and Spain that continue to pair down their militaries in a challenge to the underlining purpose of contemporary militaries. And finally, it looks at defence status quo states such as Italy, Germany and Norway who seek to maintain robust armed forces but continue to narrow the scope of engagement. The paper sets out an exploration about how defence planning is shaped by budgets. It argues that the relationship moves from linear to non-linear across the states.