The Evolution of Citizens’ Attitudes towards questions of Reform: A Study of Attitudinal Shifts among Members of Ireland’s Mini-publics

Ireland is the first country in the world to have had two national-level mini-publics established by government that have been tasked with considering questions of constitutional reform. The first of these, the Irish Constitutional Convention (ICC), operated for 14 months from 2012-14, the second, the Irish Citizens’ Assembly (ICA), was established in late 2016 and is still ongoing. In both cases the membership comprised a random selection of citizens from around the country (selected by a market research company): 99 citizens in the case of the ICA; in the case of the ICC there were 66 citizens, the other 33 members being members of parliament. This paper makes use of data gathered from a series of surveys of the members implemented at the start and end of each weekend of deliberation. This allows us to track the evolution of opinion relating to the issues at hand. The paper identifies those who changed their minds and tests for statistically significant shifts in members’ opinions across the themes discussed by both mini-publics. Members were seated at round tables of up to eight with a facilitator and note-taker. We examine the extent to which group dynamics may have resulted in convergence to a mean or towards a specific viewpoint. In addition, we utilise question batteries on the conservative/liberal dimension, prior knowledge, and satisfaction with the deliberative process in order to further unpack the factors underpinning any opinion shift. An unusual feature of the ICC was its mixed composition of members: two thirds of them a random selection of citizens, one third of them members of parliament. The survey data allow us to distinguish between these two categories facilitating an unparalleled opportunity to examine how attitudinal evolution might vary across these two populations.