The Determinants of Migration Policy Change

It is frequently assumed that left-wing governments are more pro-immigration than right-wing governments. This presumed association is however more complex in reality, because (coalition) governments may be divided internally or pursue multiple political objectives at the same time. This paper investigates the extent to which compositional changes of governments drive subsequent adjustments in immigration policies. We explore the driving factors of immigration policies formation and changes such as political negotiation and bargaining, the influence of interest groups such as business lobbies or trade union, as well as the role of international pressure on national policy-making, which may result in a policy diffusion, the watering-down of ideological preferences and ultimately more fuzzy policy outcomes. Drawing on the DEMIG POLICY database tracking migration policy changes in 21 European and traditional Anglo-Saxon immigration countries between 1975 and 2012, we assess the effect of partisan composition and political orientation of governments on four different dimensions of immigration policy: border enforcement, admission, integration, and return. Preliminary results support the conclusion that there is no robust relationship between the political orientation of governments and changes in migration policies restrictiveness per se. However, the rise of far-right parties, even if not in government, can drive government policies towards more restrictiveness. Similar knock-on effects on national migration policy making are driven by more restrictive policies in „relevant“ other destination countries. In general, however, migration policy changes are predominantly driven by business cycles effects such as economic growth and unemployment, changes in recent immigration dynamics and more systemic factors such as electoral systems or the level of federalism.