Friction, Competition, or Cooperation: A Menu of Choice for the Relationship between the United States and China in the 21st Century – A Power Transition Perspective

In this paper, we use the theoretical framework of the power transition theory (Organski, Kugler, Tammen, et al.) in analyzing the scenarios of the relationship between the United States and China in the 21st century. The United States, the current global leader, is considered challenged by China which is on its trajectory to replace the United States as the largest economy on earth. Will the interactions between the United States and China spell conflict or encourage cooperation worldwide? There are two major components in the power transition theory: power parity and interest divergence. Only when these two conditions are both satisfied, there will be major conflict between the incumbent leader and the upcoming challenger. Given that Chinese rise in economic, political and military power is unstoppable, the only key factor affecting the outcome of the Sino-US relations is interest. If they share enough substantive interest, then even if there is a power transition, the outcome will be peaceful. According to the constructivist approach in international relations theory (Wendt), interest and identity are constructed in the process of international interactions. Will the interest and identity issues related to the Sino-US relations evolve to engender conflict or cooperation? This paper will systematically analyze both the power distribution of the two countries as well as the interest and identity coming out of the process of their exchanges so as to shed light on the consequences of the relationship between them in the 21st century.