Central and Eastern Europe’s Place in the Future Global Order

The paper considers Central and Eastern Europe’s (CEE) situation in the future world order by analyzing several variables and predicting their consequences. The basic assumption of the paper is: CEE will undergo influences of three major centers of power: the West, Russia and China. Among them the West is likely to be partially disintegrated, at least into the USA and major Western European powers. From this starting point I am to consider the following variables: the first one is internal, which means, it embraces what in CEE located is, and how the region is (dis)integrated. The second is external but strongly influential towards the region: three global centers’ potential, considered as power relative to one another and power distribution relative to the world. The third variable contains amity/enmity between the centers, which, I believe, does not simply result from the configuration of power, but is strongly interrelated with ideological factors and the quality of leadership. The ongoing differentiation of CEE, and forces behind it, indicate that also in the next decades the region will not be completely united. It seems national(ist) perspectives tend to grow stronger which prevents CEE from deeper integration. The differences among actors regard also quasi-ideological or cultural factors. For instance, a willing transformation of Poland into a pro-Russian state is inconceivable but countries like Czechia, Serbia or Bulgaria have had long historical ties with Moscow, and they can maintain this option on their agenda. As for great powers’ potential, all three: the USA, China and Russia may face the risk of deep crisis but the most probable scenario is relative stability of Russia and further growth of China and the US—with more uncertainty about Western Europe. This may gradually lead to China’s world domination but it would take much more than one or two decades. Nevertheless, a deep crisis of China’s economy must be also taken into account. The paper is to consider consequences of each scenario for CEE. As for relations between the centers, there could be fierce rivalry between China and the USA, which would bring specific policies towards allies and potential allies, that may lead to large-scale assistance including investment, military aid, diplomatic support etc. In other words, China and the US (or the West as a whole) hostile to one another would probably attempt to attract CEE states, not to dominate them. However, in both the US and China there are strong forces who prefer bilateral cooperation because of market-oriented mentality or more “dovish” beliefs, therefore friendship between the US and China needs to be considered as well. In turn a final question here will be: Could the future cooperative US and China somehow divide their influences in CEE? Aside the above, the paper considers the role of Russia which now takes an anti-western attitude and seeks for influences in CEE.