Competition and Conflict: The Role of Guiding Visions in the International Sustainable Energy Transition

Energy consumption causes some 70 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions. Despite many countries’ efforts to move away from carbon-intensive fossil fuels and to expand renewable energy as well as energy efficiency, international efforts to decarbonize energy systems are falling short, making the goals of the Paris Agreement difficult to attain. The paper studies this challenge of sustainable energy transitions from the perspective of constructivist IR theory. It asks what role different ideas of the future of energy supply play for a global transition to sustainable energy. The paper conceptualizes these ideas as guiding visions (“Leitbilder”), which are normative principles that signal how energy systems of the future should be designed. These visions, the paper assumes, guide policy, investment and behavioral choices – both nationally and internationally. To study the guiding visions, the paper analyses energy policy strategies through key policy documents in three countries that are of particular relevance to global energy markets and sustainable energy transitions: Germany, the U.S. and China. The paper reveals that there is some competition between Germany’s guiding vision of a sustainable “Energiewende” and Chinas vision of a low carbon “Energy Revolution”. The U.S. vision of a fossil fuel-based “Energy Dominance” contrasts with these visions. The paper discusses the opportunities and challenges for a global energy transition resulting from these competing visions.