A Recipe for Success? Under Which Conditions are Pro-Minority Bills Successful in Direct Democratic Votes?

In recent years and decades, there has been a constantly increasing amount of research regarding direct democracy and its impact on minority rights. While some authors, in this context, speak of direct democracy as a potential chance for minorities to gain political influence, others have a rather negative view and warn of a “tyranny of the majority”. However, what seems to be clear from the existing body of research is that there cannot be an overall generalizable answer of how direct democracy impacts minority rights. Instead, the extent to which pro- (or contra-) minority bills can be successful in direct democratic votes depends on several context conditions that might vary considerably from country to country, state to state or region to region. Existing studies – mainly from the US and Switzerland - have pointed to the importance of certain context conditions such as the overall party system, the configuration of direct democratic instruments (quorums, etc.), a liberal society, or the level of integration of a given minority. However, there has not been a study that takes all of these individual aspects into account and asks the question if there is a “recipe” for successful pro-minority referenda. This paper aims to fill this gap by asking the question if there are certain conditions – or combinations of conditions – under which direct democratic bills that aim at extending minority rights are successful at the ballot. The paper will use a fuzzy-set QCA design in order to answer this question and draws on a dataset of national level referenda in Europe in the timeframe from 1990 to 2015. With this, the paper will also move beyond the somewhat limited scope of the US and/or Switzerland and employ a more comprehensive framework by looking at all European democracies. As the question of protection of minorities remains central in modern democracies, the results of this paper can contribute to a better understanding of the political and social context in which direct democratic votes need to take place in order to potentially foster pro-minority rights.