Social Scientific Theories of Ideological and Identity Change

In this paper I survey the broad range of work in political science, sociology and psychology on the drivers and mechanisms of ideological and identity change, focusing on the implications for research on post-atrocity transitions. Research on the dynamics of change in ideologies and identities is extremely diverse and fragmented, and considerable interdisciplinary integration (and innovation) is needed to develop any overarching approach for its study. But I suggest that such an approach can be built around three main insights from the existing literature: first, that changes in ideology and identity are heavily influenced by well-researched psychological dynamics of motivated reasoning and heuristic inference; second, that changes reflect the social dominance of new ideas or constructions of identity in relevant interactional and informational networks which are typically (but not always) primarily influenced by elites; and third, that changes can be rooted in both sincere internalised shifts in attitudes *and* in shifts in social expectations, norms and institutions that may not correspond with sincere private views. These insights provide a basic framework for theorising the dynamics of ideological and identity change, but also point to significant gaps in current scholarly knowledge. I highlight three especially significant questions in need of further research. First, when and why do top-down/elite-led or bottom-up non-elite processes of change prevail? Second, how important and historically long-standing are pre-existing ideologies and identities in shaping subsequent ideological and identity change – do changes need long historical and cultural roots, or are sharp historical discontinuities fairly common? Third, how determinant or malleable are exogenous triggers of rapid ideological and identity change – such as wars, revolutions or other political and economic crises? Do these heavily structure available ideological and identity change, or can they be (re)interpreted and manipulated in different directions fairly freely by ideological and identity entrepreneurs.