Does Sea-Level Rise Drive Relocation Policy in the Maldives?

The predominant responses to rising sea levels are in-situ adaptations. However, increasing rates of sea-level rise will render ex-situ adaptations – in the form of relocations – inevitable in some low-lying coastal zones. Particularly small island states like the Maldives face this significant adaptation challenge. Here, government action is necessary to move vulnerable communities out of flood-prone areas. Yet, little empirical knowledge exists about the governance of relocations. While the literature often highlights risks and benefits of relocations, it remains unclear how governments organized relocations and what drove relocation policy. Therefore, we examined Maldivian relocation policies from 1956-2018. For this, we used a qualitative research design and extended the Multiple Streams Approach with the theoretical lens of Historical Institutionalism. To gather data, we conducted semi-structured interviews (n=14) with respondents from Maldivian government, non-governmental organizations and civil society involved in the relocation policy process. Interview data was complemented with a desk review of relevant laws, historical records and policy documents. We find 33 completed and 25 failed cases of relocations in the 62-year period. Key drivers of relocation policies are focusing events, socioeconomic development and institutionalized island autonomy. We find that relocations were predominantly initiated as means to facilitate economic development, not as a response to rising seas. With current rapid economic development and democratic transformation, relocations are not considered as a policy option anymore. We conclude that implementing relocations proactively will face significant barriers in the future, which highlights the urgency of successful in-situ adaptations in the Maldives.