Blind Spots and the Paradox of Vulnerability: Why Germany Was Less Prepared to Respond to the Refugee Crisis Than Luxembourg

This paper compares the preparedness and immediate response of the governments in Germany and Luxembourg to the massive influx of refugees in 2015. Based on a most similar systems design, document analysis and 20 expert interviews with bureaucrats, politicians and other professionals, the paper traces the crisis response, measures and coordination efforts in both countries and explains variation. The paper argues that Luxembourg’s small size facilitated an effective response: First, Luxembourg’s historical experience during wars and previous immigration crises led to the “paradox of vulnerability”, according to which small and vulnerable states are more aware of their own vulnerability to potential risks and crises. In the case of Luxemburg, this raised awareness of a potentially critical increase of the number of asylum seekers even before it happened. Second, simple formal structures and informal personal connections allowed for a quick exchange of information among and between Luxemburg’s administrative and political actors as well as an effective coordination of emergency measures. In Germany, in contrast, the complexity of government structures led to attention biases and blind spots that hindered adequate preparation and coordination. In particular, competing organizational identities as well as political and bureaucratic interests impeded communication not only between the central and the subnational level of government, but also between organizations at the central level. This obstructed common awareness for the imminent challenge and for joint responsibilities. The main alternative explanation, partisan effects, can be ruled out based on the interviews. The paper combines theoretical approaches from political science and comparative sociology; it joins literatures on small states, their vulnerability and organizational structures with debates on blind spots in public administration and crisis management research.