Vicious Circle of Instability: Factors of Voters´ Volatility in a Changing Political Environment

Political parties undergo fundamental changes. It is closely related not only to the shrinking partisanship, decline of the mass-membership political parties but also to loosening of traditional ties between political parties and their voters. Moreover, parties ´evacuate the zone of engagement´ (Mair 2013) what has far-reaching consequences for the interplay between voters (demand) and parties (supply). The loosening of traditional ties (de-alignment) and their potential re-establishing with other political parties (re-alignment) or a failure to re-establish such ties creates favorable conditions for voters’ ad hoc choices. High volatility became one of the most characteristics traits of recent political environment. In newer democracies the alignments between political parties and their electorates do not share historically-grown root as they do in more mature democracies. Metaphorically speaking, we are witnessing the process of de-alignment without building up the alignments. The fluctuation of party sympathizers is further catalyzed by the unstable political scene where most parties do not have enough time to establish long-term individual identification or structural ties. New/ alternative/ non-standard/challenger parties are emerging (but many are short-lived) in regular periodic cycles. Their ‘comparative advantage’ and often their deliberate strategy is jut the novelty: they become the carte blanche in a situation when others have failed and the demand for new parties is strong. The proposed paper makes an inquiry into the relationship between voters and parties, focusing on new parties and their voters. The data analyses will explore the factors of vote choice and identify the patterns of voting behaviour in the unstable party environment. The paper primarily analyse Slovakia with focus on the 2020 general election (late February). Slovakia is shown as a single country case study, however, with many generalizations to other newer democracies in the region and beyond.