Not in My Backyard? The Proximity Effect of Refugee Housing on Threat Perceptions in Germany

In the aftermath of the high influx of refugees into Germany in 2015, we witnessed a twofold effect in society: Attacks on refugee housing have drastically increased, while at the same time, support for refugees through civic engagement has been exceptionally high. What are the underlying mechanisms for these inherently different reactions to the presence of refugees within German society? While group-threat theory predicts an increase in anti-immigrant attitudes with an increasing share of foreigners, intergroup contact theory argues that, under specific circumstances, personal contacts in the neighbourhood potentially reduces prejudices and consequently leads to a more positive evaluation of immigrants. This paper sets out to test these contradictory predictions. Specifically, the paper aims at closing a research gap by investigating on the proximity effect of refugee housing on individuals’ threat perceptions. The analysis is conducted with uniquely collected and geo-referenced data for all refugee housing in Germany in 2018. In combination with geo-referenced survey data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP), where respondents’ locations are available on the street-level, the proximity effect of refugee housing on local attitudes can be determined. In a multilevel-analysis, I include individual characteristics as well as neighbourhood factors in order to investigate whether the effect of the proximity to refugee housing differs due to contextual conditions. Findings enable important policy implications in order to moderate refugee-immigration more sufficiently, enhancing integration processes.