Who’s to Blame? How Financial Crises, Ideology, and Technocrats Change (or Not) the Welfare State in Europe

Since the 2008 financial crises the appointments of technocrats in parliamentary cabinets has more than doubled. At the same time most European governments adopted fiscal austerity with important consequences for their welfare states. How much of this effect is due to the financial crisis, how much is due to party ideology and austerity policies and how much is it due to specific ministerial appointments? Using data from 13 European countries since 1980 and two-stage least square models, I test the effects of financial crises, austerity policies and of ministers’ ideology on a battery of social welfare indicators. Initial results indicate that technocrats appointed in the finance portfolio have real effects on social welfare policy, controlling for financial crises. However, experienced ministers with a background in economics are also associated with cuts in social welfare expenditure.