Technological Cold War: Alliance Dynamism, European Chinese Relations and Implication for Global Order

The rise of China’s technological ambitions under President Xi Jinping and American pushback against it has created new fronts that are tearing the technological global supply chains. The International Relations scholarship has paid little attention to the biggest geopolitical upset of the 21st century in the form of the Chinese quest for technologically surpassing the US on 5G. Trump administration was criticized not in its pushback but the unilateral nature of the pushback without consulting European and East Asian allies. There is a consensus in American political circles to confront Chinese unfair practices but even GOP hawks like Senator Marco Rubio want European cooperation. The concerns over the Chinese rollout of 5G networks are at the center of the American policies which puts the EU in a precarious situation. Andrus Ansip, EU’s digital commissioner pointed the controversial 2017 intelligence law in China which compels its companies to assist in intelligence gathering and Security commissioner Julian King emphasized that EU countries should identify and manage security risks, factor in legal and policy frameworks governing third-country suppliers and would have rights to ban companies on ‘national security grounds’. The March 2019 report highlights the issue in light of ‘strategic autonomy’ given the inevitable 5G deployment in critical infrastructures across Europe. But Chinese technological companies specifically Huawei has already made deeper inroads in the European telecommunication market and have signed 5G partnerships with 14 European operators. Given the internal politburo politics, the decoupling of Chimerica is imminent. The Chinese Vice-premier and chief trade negotiator Liu He has made it clear that the state-backed enterprises are not on the negotiation table and Trade Rep. Robert Lighthizer is not backing on that even after ceremonial phase one trade deal. The hardliners within the standing politburo led by Wang Qishan have made their intentions clear regarding decoupling from the global supply chain as the imminent goal. The issue has the potential to further undercut EU’s loss of capacity and effectiveness gave the centrality of 5G deployments in critical infrastructures across the member states. At the same time, it has the potential to further consolidate a strong European response from the EU. There are global implications for Europe’s position on the Huawei question. The shut out from the majority of European markets will limit Huawei’s field of operation to the Asian market and will strengthen the American position while the continuation of services will lead to a complex scenario and intensification of security challenges for both the US and European nations. The proposed paper attempts to explore the spectrum of the EU’s response to the 5G question, its role in the shaping of the global alliance of the concern raised by Chinese technological practices and wider implications for European and Chinese relations. The methodology of the inquiry is mixed and will draw from both qualitative and quantitative methods to create scenario building simulation to analyze the distinct responses and their implications for the emergence of the techno-political alliance.